See below for abstracts of the forthcoming articles.
In late 2011, there have been reports of "almost unimaginable change" to the political environment in Myanmar. Censorship has been relaxed, a number of political prisoners have been released, exiles have been invited to return, and a law permitting independent trade unions has been adopted. These changes have captured the headlines, at least momentarily obscuring the government atrocities reported over the past several decades. Yet reports from Myanmar indicate that government crimes are continuing under the new regime and in fact may be increasing. As recently as September and November 2011, influential international human rights organizations Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have continued to insist that the Myanmar government be held accountable for these crimes. In May and September 2011, U.N. Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, Tomás Ojea Quintana, reported continued widespread violence and abuse, reiterating his call for a United Nations Commission of Inquiry into international crimes in Myanmar.
Under normal circumstances, commencing a criminal case does not require the support of powerful countries, U.N. officials, and human rights groups. Instead, allegations are simply brought to a prosecutor who determines whether sufficient evidence exists to proceed. At the ICC, for instance, typically the Prosecutor will begin an investigation based on the request of a country that is a member of the ICC or on information received from individuals or organizations. No U.N. involvement or stamp of approval is necessary. Myanmar, however, is not a typical case because it has not ratified the founding statute of the ICC (called the Rome Statute). Thus, the ICC has no jurisdiction in Myanmar. Importantly, however, the drafters of the Rome Statute made one crucial exception to this rule: the United Nations Security Council, acting pursuant to its Chapter VII powers related to international peace and security, can "refer" situations in non-signatory countries, like Myanmar, to the ICC. While this exception provides a loophole for those seeking justice in Myanmar, it also politicizes the case. Before anyone can even imagine Myanmar's notorious former ruler, Senior General Than Shwe, on trial at the ICC, the U.N. Security Council must first be convinced to exercise its referral power. The consensus is that China and Russia would almost certainly block any such attempt. In fact, both China and Russia have spoken directly on the issue, strongly denouncing any efforts to commence a U.N. Commission of Inquiry in Myanmar. This article concludes that, to the contrary, China may not be such a sure "no" vote.
This article seeks to evaluate what China's abstention on the referral of Sudan may mean for the impetus for a Commission of Inquiry and referral of Myanmar to the ICC. In particular, the article examines the economic and political risks that China had to accept to abstain on Sudan, and speculates about how those risks would compare with an abstention on Myanmar. China's evolving foreign policy objectives, its voting history on the U.N. Security Council, and its economic and political relationships with Sudan and Myanmar all indicate that today, the opposite of 2005 is true: rather than an abstention surprising anyone, it would be surprising to see China veto a Commission of Inquiry or ICC referral of Myanmar.
